Covariance calibration and parity certificates for stable count laws
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Abstract
We study the normalized covariance deficit of a homogeneous real-stable count law on m categories with total count k. This deficit is a rescaling of an established canonical dependence matrix for two balls drawn without replacement. Its positive semidefiniteness gives a diagonal domination property that controls rare categories and normalization error. We use this structure to construct an upper confidence bound for its operator norm without a minimum category-probability assumption and without knowing the mean. Independent batches of full count observations suffice: the mean stage uses O(m(k − 1)ε^{−2} log(m/δ)/k) observations and the second stage uses O(m(k − 1)²ε^{−2} log(m/δ)). A stable degree-two subclass gives a matching linear category and inverse-square accuracy lower bound up to logarithms. Real-rooted one-dimensional projections then turn a covariance bound and a reference Fourier margin into simultaneous positive-parity certificates. We give a sharp positivity boundary on a binary subclass and stable laws with identical means and covariance but opposite parity. The constants in the confidence bound are conservative, and the observation model is classical labeled counts.
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Research details
- Subjects
- Mathematics · Probability and Statistics
- Keywords
- stable count laws, covariance estimation, rare categories, confidence bounds, parity certificates
- Manuscript date
- 2026-10-23
- Reader reuse
- No additional permission granted
Scope
Classical labeled-count observations from a single homogeneous real-stable total-count law, with independent iid mean and pair batches, are required. Real stability is a model assumption. Constants are conservative. Mean and covariance do not determine parity in general.
Disclosures
AI systems assisted research exploration, literature discovery, drafting and internal checking. The author retains responsibility for the manuscript.
Reproduction
The seven-member package contains the 10-page manuscript, complete LaTeX source, calibrator.py, verify.py, reader instructions, citation metadata and a manifest. Run verify.py in normal and optimized modes and calibrator.py --self-test using the Python standard library. For data input, follow README.md: independent labeled-count histograms and explicit sample-size gates are required. The synthetic fixtures provide exact replay. Compile main.tex twice with a standard LaTeX installation.
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